Tech-Trump

The Technology-Driven Supply Side will Get a Boost from Trump

As an ex died-in-the-wool monetarist, I have been shocked by the fact that no amount of monetary excess by central banks has brought about global inflation. While I wouldn’t argue with the fact that big debt overhangs from the Great Recession of 2008 have inhibited spending and hence aggregate demand, I believe the fundamental deflationary factor has been the...
close up clothing label made in china

Bashing China with American Protectionism is Dumb

Whenever we buy products made in China— and by “we” I mean citizens not just in America but also in other countries now grappling with a rising China like India, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan— we as consumers are helping to finance a Chinese military buildup that may well do us and our countries harm. Navarro, Peter....
Double exposure of scientist hand holding laboratory flask

Investing in Chinese Tech Stocks

China’s “Four Great Inventions”, gunpowder, paper, the compass and the printing press, are often trumpeted as the hallmarks of its civilization. But these fruits of Chinese ingenuity are in many ways peripheral to the historical development of Chinese civilization… Justin Crozier, China in Focus Magazine, 2002   As the diversity and sophistication of Chinese scientific traditions have become more evident to scholars…...
Logo of Tesla accompanied by a blue Tesla car

The Second Automotive Revolution is Coming

Get your veil and get your duster Get the yen for goggles when the wind's a guster Keep your Hubbard gown Firmly belted down When you're out in your Stanley Steamer Lyrics from The Stanley Steamer as sung by Dinah Shore The principal interest of this blog is to analyze macroeconomic trends that affect investors. Central bank profligacy, ever expanding entitlements and unfavorable demographics in...

Science Rejected

Let’s put it this way. I wouldn’t buy a gene-splicing stock for my grandmother. Said in 1981 by James Watson, the last hundred years’ foremost geneticist. Mansanto is responsible for the genetic modification of wheat, corn, soy...though they deny that, because they make small changes at a time. The result is the same. Mansanto is responsible for gluten intolerance, gastric disease,...
word "IPO" written on golden sand

Never Give A Sucker An Even Break

Since Uber’s shareholders aim to fetch the highest possible price for the company, it is better for Uber, which remains unprofitable, to go public before its growth slows too much. If Uber times it right, it can make investors in public markets believe it is a good buy—even at a valuation greater than its most recent $68 billion. Wall Street...

Brexit – It’s not Over

By 2025 there will be a vast new firm, valued at an astronomical sum and run by people who look like teenagers from a futuristic building in . . . well, where will it be? Can you imagine it being in Europe? Me neither. Matt Ridley Never let the perfect plan be the enemy of the good plan. Various Luminaries The Brexit referendum...

Macro Overload

Brexit, negative interest rates, a China slowdown of undetermined extent, a bizarre American Presidential election  – that’s more than a full plate of macro unknowns for investors to grapple with.  And we can add to that a longer term unknown called the “rise of the robots.” Let’s start with Brexit. I have no idea whether this will pass or not....
The-Trump-Democracy

The Myth of the Rational Voter

The above title has been filched from a book with the same title written by economist Bryan Caplan in 2007. Today the book reads like a primer for 2016 American Presidential elections. Generalizing only a little, all three candidates are espousing populist policies which ignore basic economic principles. (I know. Trump doesn’t really mean what he says. We can...
Carl Ichan Investor

Carl Icahn Was Right

As this blog is written, Carl Icahn announced that he sold his entire extensive position in Apple. He cited macro and political risks in China. In my opinion, he made the smart move. For starters, this blog isn’t really about Apple. It’s about China. Let’s begin with the macro considerations. It’s fairly safe to say that China has been misallocating...