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The black swan theory is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. Old metaphor popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars […]
President Xi does not need to get elected. President Trump needs to get reelected. The stock markets will crash further if there is no trade deal with China and Trump will not get reelected. Therefore Trump must make a deal with China. It’s a syllogism. The forecast: Trump will make a deal. If there is […]
The premises of this war {over} the huge bilateral trade deficit with China are very peculiar. The presumption is that the U.S. is better and more efficient than any other country, and if we don’t export more than we import, China must be cheating. Any economist would say that premise is absurd. We live in […]
Once upon a time Americans were very sensitive on the subject of taxation. They even dumped British tea into the Boston Harbor as a protest against British taxes. And the American constitution was written to give an elected Congress the primary power to impose taxes. But over the years, Congress has transferred its power to […]
You f…g Americans. Who are you to tell us, the rest of the world, that we’re not going to deal with Iranians? Richard Meddings, Standard Chartered’s Finance Director, said in 2012 America under Donald Trump is emerging as the global bully. Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, the rest of the EU and for that matter, […]
What really makes China so scary today is the fact that it has so many people, and it’s also becoming an incredibly wealthy country so that our great fear is that China will turn into a giant Hong Kong. And if China has a per capita GNP that’s anywhere near Hong Kong’s GNP, it will […]
In 1914 the Europeans (including the British) ruled the world. Their empires spanned the globe, their culture reigned supreme, financially they were the center of the world, their science was a marvel and they had convinced themselves and a good part of the world that they possessed a moral superiority. But by 1945, they had […]
The Chinese way of running their economic system is quite brilliant. I tip my hat to them. To avoid a trade war, China must cease its economic war against America. Quotes from Steven Bannon, Trump confidante By the time the shots heard around the world were fired in Concord and Lexington in April 1775, improving […]
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